Feto Juventude hala'o votasaun iha eleisaun prezidensial (17/03/2012) iha Timor-Leste
Fundasaun Mahein (FM) fiar katak siguransa eleisaun no estabilidade ba prosesu votasaun dadaun ne’e liu ho diak. FM mos nota katak hanesan baibain iha Timor-Leste depois ukun an, Pupulasaun oituan liu no hatudu ona sira nia matoridade durante periode kampania. Wainhira iha eleisaun ho signifikativu, isu siguransa sempre biban mosu depois anunsiamentu los nian konaba sira ne’ebe sai manan na’in i mos ba lakon na’in.
Primeira ronde eleisaun Prezidensial ne’ebe hahu iha loron 17 Marsu 2012 komplentu ona no prosesu kontajen la’o dadaun hela. No ne’ebe kontinua sae dahuluk nian maka Lu Olo (FRETILIN), Taur Matan Ruak (Independente ne’ebe suporta husi Primeiru Ministru Xanana Gusmao ho nia CNRT), Lasama (PD) prezidente aktual Jose Ramos-Horta (Independente, elisaun uluk nian suporta hosi Xanana Gusmao).
Rezultadu dahuluk to ohin loron 19 Marcu 2012 deklara ona katak laiha kandidadu ida maka hetan maioria sei hakat ba segunda ronde. Iha biban ne’e posibilidade tolu maka sei presenta iha elisaun segunda ronde tuir mai ne’e :Lu Olo ho Taur Matan Ruak bele sai pakote dahuluk nian ou daruak ne’ebe sei kompleta ba segundu ronde. Nune’e mos haktuir ba rezultadu dahuluk nian prezidente Jose Ramos Horta mos besik husi kotuk los Taur Matan Ruak no biban ba segunda ronde hasoru Lu Olo.Dala ruma, maibe surpreza, e ne’e trend ida signifikante iha periode kontanjen ikus nian.
Fundasaun Mahein hakerek hela katak ne’e elisaun dahuluk nian iha Timor-Leste ne’ebe autoridade elitoral nain, media sira, no mos ekipa organizadora hosi kandidatus sira lansa resultadu hosi“ quick count/ kontajem lalais nian. Rezultadu quick count hirak ne’e hatutan ba, ka halo kombinasaun hosi ofisias STAE sira, media no observador sira no mos hosi estasaun centru votasaun nian seluk iha teritoriu laran tomak.Kandidatus sira ne’ebe kapabelidade makas iha quick count hosi akipa organizadora Lu Olo ho Taur Matan Ruak nian. Hosi ekipa rua ne’e lansa sai rezultadu besik hanesan, iha biban seluk maka halo difirensia hirak ne’ebe fiar katak kada ekipa hosi kandidatus ida-idak hosi kandidatus rua ne’e balun dehan ida liu ida seluk.
Fundasaun Mahein hare kandidatus sira hotu konsidera sira ida-idak nianquick counts ne’e ikus mai sei konsideira iha kontajem final nian no mos bele haruka organizadora elisaun nian hanesan STAE ho CNE, i karik iha argumentu konaba kontajem final nian ne’ebe sei uza hodi prosesa ba. Katak iha posibilidade militantes ka apoiantes sira hosi kandidatus rua ne’e bele uza no fiar katak sira nian numeru rasik la hanesan ho kontajem ofisial independente sira. Kandidatu bele husu direita no publika ba sira nia apoiantes sira.
Ba oras ne’e dadaun to loron ida ne’e to centru votasaun taka iha 3 loraik OTL, iha dia 17 Marcu, dezemvolve lalaok kontradisaun ba rezultadu kontajem lalais nian ne’ebe hamosu ona deferente no kria tensaun entre apoiantes Lu Olo ho Taur Matan Ruak nian. Maibe saida maka rezultadu dahuluk nian fo sai ba ita katak ne’e sai hanesan senariu politik ida ne’ebe sei afeita ba seguransa iha Timor-Leste?
Dahuluk, eis komandante militar Taur Matan Ruak foin maka fulan 5 iha liur depois de resignasaun no deklara nia kandidatura hanesan presidente iha elisaun, sai tiha ona hanesan forsa politik iha Timor-Leste. Tan ne’e hetan suporta partikularmente hosi Permeiru Ministru Xanana Gusmao, no ne’e fo sai mos katak votantes barak maka lasatisfast ba estabelesementu klase politika iha Timor-Leste.
Daruak, FRETILIN kontinua dezemvolve an hanesan makina politika boot iha Timor-Leste. Nudar partidu opozisaun ne’ebe halo nia responsabilidade politikida, konstruktivu no kritikal durante tinan 5 nian laran, dala ruma lahetan vota popular signifikativamente tan.
Dalatoluk, Lasama husi PD hare hanesan laiha rezultadu diak hosi resultadu elisaun 2007, nune mos laiha kandidatus hosi partidu AMP balun, ne’e hatudu katak votantes hosi Non-FRETILIN sira agora halo konsolidasaun hosi Xanana Gumao nia kotuk. Maske hatudu votantes balun iha posibilidades makas vota ba Taur Matan Ruak mai hosi simpatizant FRETILIN nian, mais votantes sira ne’ebe la vota ba sira nia partidu rasik komesa mosu dadaun ona.
Karik rezultadu eleisaun final nian ho trend ba kontajem ofisial fo sai katak Lu Olo ho Taur Matan Ruak iha segundu ronde, ne’e katak iha posibilidade balun sei iha impaktu ba seguransa elisaun parlementar iha fulan Junu 2012 mai. Sekarik elisaun presidensial iha Timor-Leste ba segunda ronde para hoFransisco “Lu Olo” Gutteres ho Jose Maria “Taur Matan Ruak” Vasconselos saida maka sai rezultadu?
Iha kontekstu rezultadu eleisaun Prezidensial ita komprende katak elesaun presidencial ida ne’e mak sei fo indikasaun hanesan opininaun publik ba Fretilin no Governu AMP i ida ne’e importante tanba ita hatene katak elesaun Junho mai ne’e sei la iha ida mak atu manan mayoria.
Tanba ida ne’e mak ita hatene katak Prezidenti ida agora ne’e, atu Lu-olo ka TMR, sira nain rua ne’e ida sei enfrenta sirkumtansia ida ne’ebe mak Jose Ramos Horta (JRH) enfrenta tia ona iha 2007. Sira nain rua ne’e ida mak sei negosi ho Fretilin ou Xanana para oinsa atu forma governu iha periode 2012-2017. Situasaun ida ne’e sei hasara tuir fali situasaun iha 2007 neba wainhira JRH fo desizaun para Xanana forma Governu AMP. Desizaun ida iha 2007 ne’e hetan hirus boot husi Fretilin no nia militantes sira ne’ebe mak halo protesta boot ho violensia iha fatin balun hanesan distritu Viqueque. Maibe iha periode 2012 ne’e ita seidauk hatene los oinsa mak TMR ou Lu-olo atu resolvesirkumtansia ida ne’ebe mak enfrenta JRH iha tempu ne’eba.
Sirkumtansia hirak ne’e hasara malu maibe rezultadu iha tempu ida ne’e bele la hanesan. Iha Juinu mai ne’e votus barak mak sei tama iha Fretilin no CNRT, maibe partidu rua ne’e sei la hetan maioria. Tanba ida ne’e mak ita hatene katak partidu ki’ik sira mak sei influensa oinsa mak partidu boot rua ne’e atu hari’i koligasaun parlamentar. Partidu hirak ne’ebe mak agora dadaun hetan kadeira iha uma fukun maka PD, PSD, ASDT, UNDERTIM, PUN no KOTA maibe seidauk hatene los sei partiduPUN, KOTA, UNDERTIM no ASDT bele hetan nafatin kadeira iha elesaun Junu mai ne’e.
Ida fali tan mak partidu foun balun hanesan PDN no KHUNTO mos sei iha posibilidade para atu hetan kadeira iha eleisaun Juinu mai ne’e. Ne’e duni wainhira ita analiza oinsa mak partidu boot rua ne’e atu hari’i koligasaun parlamentar ita tenke analiza mos relasaun entre Xanana no Alkatiri ho partidu ki’ik hirak ne’e. Relasaun hirak ne’e mos sei influensa maka’as desizaun ne’ebe mak lideransa sira halo i Prezidente foun ne’e mos tenke hare didiak ba ida ne’e wainhira nia foti desizaun konaba ida ne’ebe mak atu forma governu.
Lu-olo no TMR iha tiha ona ligasaun ho FRETILIN ou Xanana. Maibe ita hatene katak wainhira sira hala’o sira nia kampania prezidensial sira hateten sai katak sira sei sai prezidente ba ema hotu, laos interese politika nian deit. Mais iha kontekstu desizaun todan ligasaun, la’os liafuan, maka sei vale liu. Politika ne’e la’os lia mamuk, maibe politika ou desizaun politika ne’e hanesan desizaun konaba se los mak atu kontrola osan billiaun boot hirak ne’e. Ida ne’e ema hotu hatene.
Fundasaun Mahein fiar katak sosiadade sivil, partidu politik no institusaun governu hatene diak tiha ona oinsa rezultadu iha periode 2012 ne’e. Fundasaun Mahein mos hatene katak organisasaun Xanana, Lu Olo, TMR, JRH, Lasama no partidus sira balun sai tur hamutuk atu oinsa bele halao negosiu politik ida ne’ebe mak komplikadu tebebes. Mesmu ke emosaun politik iha tempu ida ne’e sae maka’as lideransa politik sira la iha intensaun no hakarak atu kria violensia iha tempu ida ne’e. Maibe la hatene los se attitude politik na’in nian hirak ne’e hato’o tiha on ba populasaun sira iha sidade ne’ebe mak sei hetan ameasa hosi violensia.
Political Wrap Up in Presidential Election
Fundasaun Mahein believes that election security and stability in the current voting process is going well. It also notes that usually in independent Timor-Leste the population has shown restraint and maturity during the campaigning and voting period. When there have been significant election security issues it has almost always come after the announcement of clear winners and losers.
The first round of the Presidential Elections which were held on 17 March 2012are now complete but voting counts are still going on. The elections’ leading candidates were Lu Olo (FRETILIN), Taur Matan Ruak (Independent but endorsed by Prime Xanana and CNRT), Lasama (PD) and incumbent President Jose Ramos-Horta (Independent, although previously supported by Xanana).
Early results as of 19 March 2012 suggest that there must be a second round as no candidate has been able to get a clear majority. Three possibilities for the second round present themselves. These being that Lu Olo and Taur Matan Ruak come first or second in the first round and will compete for the Presidency in the second round. Also according to some early results President Jose Ramos Horta could have a late push past TaurMatanRuak putting him in the second round up against Lu Olo. This however would be surprising, as it would require that the trend change significantly in the last counting period.
Fundasaun Mahein takes note that this seems to be the first election in Timor-Leste where election authorities, the media, and some candidates campaign organizations are issuing quick count results. These quick count results are being generated by a combination of STAE staff, media and candidate observers at the polling stations around the country. The candidates with the most robust quick count capabilities have been Lu Olo and TaurMatanRuak. Both groups have been issuing quick counts which while similar, suggest that different things with the belief that each side is ahead of the other.
Fundasaun Mahein notes that all candidates while taking into account their own quick counts should ultimately rely upon and respect the final counts put forward by the official elections body STAE, and that if there are arguments about the final results that due process be adhered to. There is a possibility that militants on both sides may choose to believe their own numbers as opposed to official independent counts. Candidates should ask this directly and publicly of their supporters.
In recent hours and days since the polling stations closed at 3pm 17 March and with the background context of at times contradictory quick count results being issued there has been a slight increase in the tension between the Lu Olo and TaurMatanRuak supporters.
However what do the early results tell us about the current political landscape and its potential effects on security in Timor-Leste?
Firstly, former defence force chief Taur Matan Ruak has in just 5 months, since he resigned from the army and announced his intention to run for President, become a political force in Timor-Leste. While this has partially been a result of Prime Minister XananaGusmao’s late endorsement it also suggests that many voters are not satisfied with the established political class in Timor-Leste.
Secondly, FRETILIN appears to remain the largest political machine in Timor-Leste. However, despite 5 years of being a responsible, constructive and critical opposition party it appears as though they might not have significantly moved forward in regaining popular vote.
Thirdly, the fact that Lasama, PD’s candidate appears to havenot improved on his 2007 result, along with the absence of other AMP party candidates it suggests non-FRETILIN voters maybe consolidating behind Xanana. Although there is a possibility that some who voted for TaurMatanRuak have FRETILIN sympathies, but elected to vote for an outsider as opposed to the establishment.
If the final election results trend to an official count with Lu Olo and Taur Matan Ruak in the second round there are a few possibilities that will impact election security for the general elections in June 2012.
If Timor-Leste ends up with either a President Fransisco “Lu Olo” Gutteres or a President Jose Maria “Taur Matan Ruak” Vasconselos what is the result?
In the context of the Presidential election results we understand that it is in a way a public opinion poll on FRETILIN and the AMP Government and it is likely possible that we will not have a clear majority winner in the general elections.
As a result it will be the first task of a new President (either Lu Olo or Taur Matan Ruak) to choose and to some extent negotiate the process whereby either FRETILIN or Xanana get to form a coalition and thus establish the Government for the 2012-2017 period. It is in a way a similar result to when President Jose Ramos-Horta chose Xanana to form a Government in 2007, causing considerable anger in FRETILIN circles. This anger resulted in major post election violence in some parts of Timor-Leste in August 2007. In particular in Viqueque district.
However, 2012 in not 2007, and it is hard to predict what a President TMR or a President Lu Olo will do if they are faced with a similar set of circumstances as was faced by President Jose Ramos-Horta in 2007.
The circumstances while similar are also possibly going to be very different. This is possibility going to show itself in a stronger result for both FRETILIN and CNRT in June 2012. Although neither is likely to get a majority. As a result it will the position of smaller parties that determine the nature of a potential coalitions. PD. PSD, ASDT, UNDERTIM, PUN, KOTA, are currently holding seats in Parliament. It is not clear if PUN, KOTA, UNDERTIM, and ASDT will be able to win seats again. New parties like PDN and KHUNTU look as though they might be able to get enough votes to win seats in Parliament. So when looking at the nature of coalition building after the June 2012 vote what is the relationship between the leaders of these small parties and either Xanana or Alkatiri? These relationships will play a role any deal making. The new President will have to be aware of these as he makes a decision on who to ask to form government.
Both Lu Olo and TMR have clear allegiances to either FRETILIN or Xanana. However both campaigned that they would seek to represent the people as opposed to a party interest. But in the context of having to make a hard choice between parties to form government, allegiances rather than rhetoric will be what counts. Politics is not an abstraction. Whoever wins government controls billions of dollars. All sides know this.
Fundasaun Mahien believes that civil society, political parties and the government institutions are very aware of this probable outcome in June 2012. Fundasuan Mahein is also aware that the Xanana, Lu Olo, TMR, JRH, and Lasama organizations and parties are privately engaged in a complicated set of ongoing negotiations as to how to manage this process. While political animosity is high, there is little or no desire at the leadership level to provoke violence. However, it is not clear if this attitude is being properly conveyed to people in the villages where violence is most likely to occur.
