photo : Fundasaun Mahein
Timor-Leste’s fate hangs precariously “on the brink of becoming a failed state,” as stated by James Curran, International Editor of the Australian Financial Review and a professor at the University of Sydney. With a headline boldly claiming Timor-Leste’s proximity to collapse and a subtitle dissecting the country’s woes, Curran paints a vivid picture of fragility and imminent self-destruction. According to Curran, Timor is a place marred by “stubborn and entrenched elites,” seemingly “impervious to the plight of the people.” These elites find themselves under the leadership of Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão, whose actions are described as “crazy-brave” and “arbitrary.” All of this unfolds against a backdrop of a “dwindling sovereign wealth fund” and the “distant prospect of new oil revenues.” Meanwhile, drifting down the diplomatic corridors are “whispers that key Timor-Leste elites are being paid off by the state.” And what does Curran’s impending state failure look like? Well, when state coffers run dry, “Dili’s elites will turn on each other, or head for West Timor.” End of story. (Australian Financial Review, August 16, 2023)
Perhaps Curran himself has spent too long drifting down diplomatic corridors rather than engaging in careful analysis. His rhetoric only gains some coherence when viewed through the lens of Australian foreign policy, which he seems keen on shaping. By emphasizing the need for Australia to shift its focus away from mitigating China’s influence in Timor-Leste and towards addressing the prevalent economic and political issues, Curran might be making a reasonable point. The core challenge facing Timor-Leste does not stem from China; rather, it lies within the realm of Dili’s elites who have been unable to safeguard the nation’s future. But are these two issues not interrelated? Curran goes on to highlight the uncertainty surrounding petroleum revenues and the absence of a viable “Plan B” as two crucial factors exacerbating Timor’s vulnerability. Fundasaun Mahein does not take issue with Curran’s basic assessment of Timor-Leste’s inadequacies but rather his hasty drawing of conclusions regarding state collapse. His Grand Finale, designed to persuade Australia that a dire foreign policy catastrophe is looming, is where our real concern lies.
The spark that ignited Curran’s opinion piece was evidently the Prime Minister’s recent affirmation that Timor-Leste would abstain from joining ASEAN until the organization effectively resolves Myanmar’s crisis. The Prime Minister’s diplomatic misstep provoked swift criticism and prompted both the government and the President to backtrack. The problem with Curran’s remarks is that they play into the hands of those ASEAN members who, for two decades, have resisted Timor-Leste’s accession for precisely those reasons that Curran now emphasizes: political instability, poor government performance, and oil and gas dependency.
Timor-Leste has made extraordinary efforts to change ASEAN’s negative perceptions by assuring ASEAN that Timor-Leste is on track to meet ASEAN standards. If Curran is sincerely worried by the risk our Prime Minister’s statements pose to Timor-Leste’s accession to ASEAN, he should know better than to exhume buried reservations among member nations regarding Timor-Leste’s ASEAN ambitions. Curran knows only too well that Timor-Leste’s integration into ASEAN is critically important to Timor’s future.
The problems Curran highlights will not single-handedly propel Timor-Leste toward failure, but they do demand immediate attention and long-term planning. Among the challenges, economic diversification is paramount. Plan B should involve significant investment in agriculture, fisheries, and tourism. Diversifying the economy will offer a buffer against the pitfalls of resource dependency. Youth unemployment and street crime, often interlinked, are persistent issues that demand proactive measures. Another critical challenge is political accountability. Rooting out corruption, nepotism, and the politicization of the public service is essential. Timor-Leste must uphold transparency and meritocracy to secure its future. Interestingly, Curran does not touch upon the climate crisis. As rising sea levels threaten coastal communities, preparations for adaptation, including tackling floods, droughts, and heatwaves, become increasingly urgent. In tandem with this, the pressing concerns of soaring living costs and food prices must be thoughtfully addressed.
It is fair to say that Timor-Leste’s fate is not as dire as Curran’s journalistic perspective might imply, at least not in the short to medium term. Perhaps it is not the state teetering on the brink of failure, but rather James Curran who is on the brink of losing sight of balanced journalism and failing to be clear about what might happen tomorrow and what might happen in ten years. As Timor-Leste grapples with its challenges, its path forward demands comprehensive, strategic action across sectors and the embrace of “Plan B” for a resilient future, precisely to avoid, in the longer term, the kind of scenario that Curran is expecting before midnight.
