Progresu no Dezafiu Dezenvolvimentu Forsa NAVAL F-FDTL “Prespetiva Forsa 2020”

(Foto FM Dokument)

Fundasaun Mahein (FM), 29 Juñu 2016

Komunikadu Imprensa

Progresu no Dezafiu Dezenvolvimentu Forsa NAVAL F-FDTL
“Prespetiva Forsa 2020”

Liu husi Mahein Nia Hanoin Nú 12 (Versaun Tetum.pdf) kona-bá Planu inisiu hari’i F-FDTL, rekomendasaun husi estudu Kings’s College (London) iha tinan 2000, Timor-Leste la presiza forsa Naval iha tempu badak entre tinan 2000 to’o 2005 nian laran. Bele ho deit ezersitu maizumenus 50 resin sufisiente ona atu proteze rekursu maritima no satan atividade kontra-bandu iha tasi. Makse nune’e, Governu Timor-Leste ladun konkorda ho rekomendasaun husi estudu Kings’s College refere. Tinan 2007, Governu formula fali ninia polítika estratejiku ho opinaun kontrariu ba dezenvolvimentu forsa Naval Timor-Leste, liu husi estudu estratejiku ida ho naran “Forsa 2020”. Katak, dezenvolvimentu forsa Naval importante no nesesidade duni ba Timor-Leste.

Haree husi konseitu no misaun Forsa Naval, dokumentu politika “Forsa 2020” nu’udar mehi aas ne’ebé sai kontraversial depois Governu públika iha tinan 2007. Opiniaun no kritiku konsidera dokumentu Forsa 2020 reprezenta ba tempu naruk nian deit, nomos la realistiku, no la kondis ba kondisaun seguransa rai-laran nomos ba mudansa ameasa iha rejiaun. Maske ne’e, tinan 2008 Governu deside aloka Orsamentu Jeral Estadu (OJE) hodi estabelese ekipa ida atu implementa “Forsa 2020” iha Gabinete Sekretariu Estadu ba Defeza nian ho naran Gabinete Forsa 2020.

Relatóriu FM nian identifika no konfirma katak Forsa 2020 mehi ne’ebé aas no mukit tebes iha implementasaun. Portantu husi matriz dezenvolvimentu ne’ebé hatur iha estudu Forsa 2020 defini faze tolu (kurtu, mediu no longu prazu) ba dezenvolvimentu Forsa Naval nian maibe ida ne’e la realistiku iha implementasaun. Iha ne’ebé implementasaun Forsa 2020 to’o ona faze longu prazu nian maibe objetivu sira husi faze hirak ne’e nian seidauk atinji.

Ida ne’e mosu konkluzaun ida katak inkapasidade husi Governu atu implementa planu no mehi ne’ebé aas husi Forsa 2020. Governu presiza rekuiñese no avaliasaun kle’an ba rekursu sira ne’ebé hodi dudu implementasaun planu ida ne’e nian tantu rekursu umanu no rekursu finanseiru. Ikus liu husi hodi lori dezenvolvimentu ida ne’ebé bele sustenta diak Forsa Naval presiza mos revê ba estudu ne’e rasik tuir kbiit ne’ebé Governu iha no ambiente estratejiku ne’ebé dadaun ne’e hetan alterasaun ne’ebé signifikatiu tebes kompara ho mehi aas ne’ebé hatuur iha Forsa 2020.

Timor-Leste nia responsabilidade kontinua dezenvolve forsa Naval. Maibe tenki kuidadu, labele bazeia deit ba planu estudus “Forsa 2020” nian. Planu 2020 nu’udar dokumentu ida ne’ebé ho filozofia luan ba forsa militar. Maibe intermus estratejiku no politika ba asaun iha frakeza barak. Kestaun maka estudu 2020 ne’e la’os mai husi Governu, nomos la konsidera rekursu seluk wainhira rezolve asuntu militar nian. Dokumentu ne’e mos la uza evidensia, analiza no evaluasaun ne’ebé koresponde ho ameasa no risku.

Dala-ruma Timor-Leste presiza halo revizaun teknikamente ba dokumentu “Forsa 2020” hodi kompara dinamika ameasa no seguransa atual kompara ho tempu anterior. Aumez-mu tempu, ekonomikamente Timor-Leste ne’ebé ninia finanseiru limitadu ba seitor defeza no seguransa kada tinan, dokumentu “Forsa 2020” la kondiz ho postura F-FDTL atualmente. Dokumentu ne’e mos ninia relevansia ladun hapar ho situasaun rai laran nomos rejiaun.

Iha nível ezekusaun iha atividade Governu nian husi monitorizasaun FM nian identifika katak problema iha nivel planeamentu no aprovizionamentu, liu-liu bainhira sosa roo rua husi Xina iha tinan 2010. Primeiru; Governu la tau konsiderasaun uluk ba portu Hera antes sosa roo, halo roo labele atraku ne’ebé implika ba nivel operasional nian. Segundu; problema roo ne’ebé Governu sosa husi nasaun Xina (Klase Shanghai III 064) laiha estudu viabilidade, roo modelu antigu/tuan (Dezeñu iha 1960 rein) ne’ebé apropriadu ho ambiente marítima Timor-Leste nian.

Kestau seluk ne’ebé relatóriu ne’e identifika kona-bá koordenasaun entre autridade sira ne’ebé nia misaun kontrola ba tasi seidauk iha autoridade ida hodi regula. Maske Governu temi bebeik ona no diskusaun balu akontese ona iha tinan hirak liu ba kona-bá Autoridade Maritima Nasional maibe to’o agora lahatene ninia rezultadu. Nune’e mos limitasaun rekursu sira Forsa Naval atividade kontinua buras iha tasi hanesan peska illegal ne’ebé parte hotu relata bebeik ona katak Timor-Leste kada tinan lakon osan boot husi atividade peska illegal no ameasa seluk ba rekursu tasi nian.

Rekomendasaun

1. Rekomenda ba Governu establese lalais Autoridade Maritima Nasional (AMN), define konseitu defeza no kria planu multi-setoral hodi rezolve problema peska ilegal, no operasun hotu-hotu iha tasi.

2. Rekomenda ba Governu atu rezolve problema manutensaun ba roo Forsa Naval ne’ebé durante ne’e iha obstaklu boot hodi implika ba serbisu operasaun Forsa Naval ba kombate krime peska ilegal iha tasi-Timor.

3. Rekomenda katak karik Governu atu hadi’a sistema aprovizionamentu ba sasaan naval ne’ebé diak, bazeia husi konsiderasaun politika AMN nian, gastas ba manutensaun no opersaun langu-prazu, estratejiku no ameasa indetifika liu husi KEDSN no tuir prosesu tekinika no transparensia presiza iha regra finansias no aprovizionamentu nia okos.

4. Rekomenda Governu presiza avaliasaun ba implementasaun Forsa 2020 no atualizasaun ba estudu ne’e rasik hodi sukat mos kapasidade ezekusaun no nível orsamentu.

Atu hetan informasaun kle’an liu kona-bá asuntu ne’e bele kontaktu:

Nélson Belo
Diretor Ezekutivu
Email: direktor.mahein@gmail.com
Telemovel: (+670) 78316075 no 77561184
Website: www.fundasaunmahein.org

Fundasaun Mahein (FM), June 29 2016
Press Release

Progress and Development Challenges for the Naval Force of the F-FDTL:
“ The Forca 2020 Perspective”

In the initial planning to establish the F-FDTL, a recommendation from the Kings’s College study (London) in 2000, posited that Timor-Leste had no need for a naval force in for the opening period of development between 2000 to 2005. The study estimated that no more than 50 troops would be necessary to protect the country’s maritime resources and limit trafficking and contraband across the sea. However, the Timorese government disagreed, and in 2007 reformulated its poitical strategy with a contradictory opinion for development of naval forces. In the state strategy, published as “Forca 2020,” the government stipulated that the development of a robust naval force was critical for the state.

When published in 2007 by the government, the “Forca 2020” document, including the concept and mission of the naval forces, was a wild dream of a text, considered exceedingly controversial by many public critics. A number of dissenting voices posited that the Forca 2020 vision set out only long-term goals, and included no foresight as to short-term necessities for government development, nor for immediate handling of regional threats and concerns. Nevertheless, in 2008 the government chose to allocate part of the General State Budget (OJE) to establish a team to implement “Forca 2020” within the Cabinet of the Secretary of State for Defense, called Gabinete Forca 2020.

FM reports have assessed and confirmed that the Forca 2020 vision has been nothing more than wishful thinking with very little investmet in practical planning and implementation strategy. The development matrix set up for Forca 2020 included three time periods for development of the naval force (short-term, mid-term, and long-term goals) but was unrealistic in its expectations for implementation, as there was very little attention paid within the planning to setting out appropriate measures for achieving short- and mid-term goals, and even in laying out those goals to begin with.

FM has concluded that the government lacks the capacity to implement its Forca 2020 plan and must properly recognize and identify its need for further resources, both labor and financial, to meet its ultimate objectives for plan implementation. In addition, the government needs to review and significantly alter its planning for the three stages of Forca 2020—up to this point, the untethered of the wishes of the state from practical objectives has done more to sink the government’s development plans than to incentivize them.

Timor-Leste now faces the task of continued development and maintenance of its standing naval force. In this regard, the government should turn away from the goals stated in the Forca 2020 plan. The 2020 plan provides a strong overarching philsophy for development of the military, but lacks any substantial and actionable strategy and policy. The 2020 plan doesn’t even stand as a definitive policy statement from the Government—in actuality, the government is not bound to the objecives and policy goals laid out in the plan, as it is little more than a document drafted by the Cabinet alone. The document uses no evidence, analysis, or assessments to qualify its goals and objectives over the given time period.

Timor-Leste needs to assert technical reviews of the Forca 2020 plan in order to compare dyamic threats and current security measures with those of the previous period. Additionally, the government should make an honest and in-depth assessment of its finances. Setting out long-term objectives without any coherent financial strategy is a massive oversight that undercuts the annual budgeting efforts to develop the security and defense sectors every year. The Cabinet made no efforts in its drafting of the 2020 Plan document to consider the actual factors on the ground and in the region—at this point, it is largely irreconcilable with the national state of affairs.

FM has identified multiple cases of an absolute lack of coherent decision-making on behalf of the government. One such case involved the purchase and procurement of two boats from China in 2010. First, the government did not consider the state of the port in Hera before the purchase—the boats lack mobility in the port area, posing significant questions for operational activity. Second, the government made no assessment of the quality and viability of the boats (Shangahu Class III 064) before purchase. Both are older boats (designed in 1960) and the government made no assessment as to whether they would be suitable for the vulnerable maritime environment of Timor-Leste.

Another prominent case of incompetence investigated for this report has been the lack of coordination in defense of maritime territory. There exist multiple authorities with stated missions to control Timorese maritime territory, yet lack the authority to regulate those territories. The government has even recognized this issue in the past, and there has been ongoing discussion in the past few years to resolve this logisitical oversight for national maritime authorities, but to date there has been no resolution. Resources remain limited for naval forces activity, despite the ongoing concern that rising rates of illegal fishing pose the risk of serious finanical loss to the state, as well valid concerns of a lack of national security.

Recommendations

FM recommends that:

1. The Government promptly establish a National Maritime Authority (AMN), define the concept of maritime defense, and create multisectorial plan to to address the issues of illegal fishing and of the larger scope of naval maritime operations.

2. The Government address the maintenance issues of its naval fleet, as this poses significant limitations in the military’s capabilities in controlling maritime territory.

3. The Government improve its procurement system for naval resources, including: coordination with AMN policy, assessment of maintenance expenses, adjusting operations for long-term strategic threats as identified through the KEDSN, and adjusting the technical processes for greater transparency with specific financial regulation under the procurement process.

4. The Government assess the implementations of Forca 2020 in order to properly gauge its capacity for execution and funding.

For more details on this issue, please contact:

Nélson Belo
Executive Director of FM
Phone: +670 78316075 or 7756 1184
Email: direktor.mahein@gmail.com
Website: www.fundasaunmahein.org