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In Timor-Leste, landmark telecommunications infrastructure projects are accelerating the country’s digital transformation process. These include the nation’s first submarine fiber optic cable – the “Timor-Leste South Submarine Cable” – and preparation by domestic mobile network operators for the transition to 5G technology. By boosting internet speeds and enhancing connectivity, these initiatives promise to stimulate economic growth and streamline governance and administration processes. However, digital transformation also brings major risks: as both the state and the population become more reliant on digital communication technologies, Timor-Leste will face increased vulnerability to digital espionage and cyberattacks. Increased regional economic integration and geopolitical competition further incentivise state and non-state actors to exploit digital infrastructure to gain political and economic advantages. These risks are enhanced by the fact that Timor-Leste’s state security agencies currently lack robust cybersecurity capabilities.
Therefore, Fundasaun Mahein (FM) has written this article exploring the national security implications of Timor-Leste’s digital transformation amidst the shifting regional political-security situation, particularly the growing geopolitical rivalry associated with the rise of China. We discuss the “geopolitics of data” and its implications for Timor-Leste’s digital transformation, security and sovereignty. We also provide recommendations to Timor-Leste’s state authorities for preparing the country and people to mitigate the risks of enhanced digital connectivity, while maximizing its benefits.
The geopolitics of data and China’s rise
The “geopolitics of data” – also referred to as the “geopolitics of cyberspace” – refers to the strategic and political dimensions of data control and governance, or how states leverage electronic data as a critical resource in the global competition over resources and influence. In the context of China’s rise as a global superpower, this concept has become increasingly significant. China’s assertive stance in the digital domain and its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have had profound effects on the dynamics of international relations and digital infrastructure development over the last decade.
China’s ascension is marked by its rapid advancements in digital communications and technology and infrastructure. With initiatives like the Digital Silk Road, part of the broader BRI, China aims to build and control significant portions of global digital infrastructure, which until now has been dominated by companies from countries such as France, Japan and the United States. By investing in and controlling infrastructure such as undersea cables, data center and 5G networks, China enhances its influence over global data flows, which can be leveraged for strategic purposes. The prominence of Chinese tech giants like Alibaba, Huawei and Xiaomi further solidifies China’s position in the global digital economy.
Other states have implemented various measures aimed at countering China’s growing influence in the digital sphere. For example, the United States Government has placed restrictions on Chinese technology companies such as Huawei, while encouraging its allies to exclude Chinese firms from critical digital infrastructure projects. Similarly, the European Union has emphasized the importance of “digital sovereignty,” promoting regulations to protect data privacy and establish standards that limit foreign control over its digital infrastructure.
Regional responses vary significantly, reflecting diverse strategic interests and dependencies. For example, ASEAN countries are balancing the benefits of Chinese investments in digital infrastructure with the need to maintain autonomy and security. On the other hand, India has taken a more confrontational approach by banning numerous Chinese apps and limiting Chinese participation in its digital markets.
Timor-Leste’s digital transformation and regional geopolitical competition
As FM has discussed in previous articles, the growing regional geopolitical rivalry has implicated smaller countries like Timor-Leste and Pacific-island states. Due to our small size and strategic locations between the Indo- and Asia-Pacific, these countries are particularly susceptible to external pressures, as larger neighbours use “carrots” and “sticks” to advance their economic and political interests in an increasingly competitive regional environment.
Certain governments in the region have fallen foul of external partners when they have expanded their cooperation with other countries in sensitive areas, particularly military-security cooperation. For their part, Timor-Leste’s leaders are engaged in a complex game whereby they attempt to leverage the interest shown by external actors in Timor-Leste to extract political and economic benefits. So far, the strategy appears to be working, as all Timor-Leste’s external partners continue to show a willingness to engage, while providing support through projects and programs in a variety of areas, including digital infrastructure.
The imminent upgrading of Timor-Leste’s digital infrastructure promises to create significant opportunities in sectors such as finance, telecommunications, and e-commerce, as well as improved public services and administrative processes. However, these digital networks also carry immense volumes of sensitive data critical to both private economic activities and national security. In the digital age, the electronic data carried by digital infrastructure have become a highly valuable commodity, fuelling the profitability of major corporations through extensive data collection and commercialization. The strategic importance of such infrastructure incentivises state intelligence agencies and various non-state actors to exploit vulnerabilities in digital infrastructure to gain access to the information they transmit.
Australia has played a significant role in supporting Timor-Leste’s digital infrastructure, most notably the South Submarine Cable fiber optic project. This support is ostensibly aimed at promoting economic development and digital security in the country and the region more broadly. While Timor-Leste has benefitted significantly from Australia’s technical support during the construction of the submarine cable, this project must also be viewed within the broader context of regional geopolitical competition, as larger countries compete to shape digital transformation processes across the region to further their own interests. This reality raises important questions about digital sovereignty, or sovereign control over digital telecommunication infrastructure and electronic data flows.
Domestic cyber-capabilities are limited
As Timor-Leste develops its digital infrastructure and connectivity increases, it will inevitably face increased cyber threats, including from organized criminal groups seeking financial gain, and from external state actors attempting to access data flows for intelligence-gathering purposes. Currently, Timor-Leste is ill-equipped to manage this situation effectively, as the intelligence and security agencies currently face serious human resource and technological limitations in the area of cybersecurity. State security institutions have received some training on cybersecurity, but generally lack the experience and resources necessary to detect and combat cyber threats.
FM therefore believes that the Timor-Leste Government must urgently prioritize the development of local cybersecurity expertise through targeted training programs and partnerships. Timor-Leste currently has inadequate numbers of computer scientists with expertise in cybersecurity, and limited capacity within national higher education institutions for producing highly qualified graduates in this area. Our education system must be adapted to the needs of the digital era, so that Timorese people can be directly involved in building and maintaining digital systems. Building our indigenous capabilities is crucial for reducing dependency on external assistance and ensuring our ability to defend against evolving cyber threats independently. In FM’s view, the only way to guarantee national sovereignty is through secure control of our own electronic data and digital infrastructure.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Timor-Leste stands at a pivotal juncture as we navigate complex geopolitical shifts while rapidly developing our digital infrastructure. Strategic planning, partnerships and investments are urgently needed to ensure that our human resources develop at the same pace as the physical digital infrastructure. From FM’s perspective, this is the only way to ensure that Timor-Leste can exert sovereign control over data flows while combating cyber threats from state and non-state actors. If the Government fails to invest adequately in human resources in the area of cybersecurity, Timor-Leste will continue to depend on external support, which will limit our ability to independently protect our own national security interests.
