Naroman Foun Ida Ba Timor-Leste Nia Politika Estranjeriu: Husi Prespetiva Seitor Seguransa Nian

Primeiru Ministru Timor-Leste, Xanana Gusmao ho Prezidenti RI, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono

Tinan 50 liu ba iha nasaun tolu maka importante liu ba Timor-Leste, sira mak hanesan Portugal, Indonezia no Australia. Durante konflitus politika ho Indonezia, Timor-Leste sai isu importante ba povu internasional ne’ebé boot liu. Hahu tinan 1999 Timor-Leste sai sujeitu ba komunidade internasional atu koko hari’i nasaun. Ida ne’e, sei mosu no hetan nia rohan no nia ninin ita tenki hatene ida ne’e ho nia impaktu sira.

Timor-Leste núdar nasaun ki’ik no la’os sai importante ne’ebé ita hanoin. Ex Presidente Amerika Bill Clinton ho Amu Papa Joao Paulo II mai tiha ona Dili, maibé sira nunka ba Kupang. Ne’e tamba sa? Ne’e tanba ita iha konflitus boot ho nasaun ida ne’ebé boot tebes iha mundu ne’ebé mos importante – ne’e mak ita nia vizinu nasaun Indonezia. Iha biban boot los katak iha eleisaun liu ba ho formasaun governu mai sei la’o diak relativamente paz no hakmatek, no ho UNMIT nia mandatu ne’ebe sei hotu iha fulan dezembru tinan ida ne’e. ita tenki hanoin katak bainhira ida ne’e akontense, ita sei la importante tan no atraktivu ba komunidade internasional ne’ebé boot. Timor-Leste sei fila fali ba hanesan uluk momentu ita sei iha tempu rezistensa.

Timor-Leste sei fila fali ba tempu bainhira Portugal, Indonezia ho Australia nia ukun hodi hare’e mundu. maibé, buat ne’ebé maka diferente boot maka Timor-Leste sai ona nasaun independente. Timor-Leste moris iha jona ida ne’ebé hateke ba koperasaun hamutuk liu husi nasaun boot sira no importante liu husi ASEAN. Timor-Leste mos sei konta ba bainhira India, Cina, ho Indonezia hanesan nasaun sira ne’ebé biban boot ba haforsa ekonomia ne’ebé potensia iha rejiuan ne’e. Estadus Unidus komesa hateke liu ona Europa iha tempu dadaun ne’e no komesa hare’e ba nasaun sira iha pasifiku ho Cina.

Husi ne’ebé los ita sei hatur Timor-Leste ba? La’os hanesan uluk ona, maibé agora ita sai nasaun independente i bele halo dezisaun soberanu. Ida ne’e importante maibé ita laiha ona konsiderasaun hanesan importante ona, ne’e tanba ita ki’ik liu.Ita nia reskursu naturais sei iha limitadu no mos hanesan ba rekursu ka matenek nain sira mos, se kompara ba skala mundu nian. Orsanmentu jeral estadu total $ 1,7 biliaun USD ne’e ba Timor-Leste boot, maibé ba nasaun boot sira laiha redusaun liu iha mundu tomak. Maibe, ne’e la’os atu bolu atensaun ida. Timor-Leste sempre hatene an ki’ik, no agora fila fali ba status ne’ebé bain-bain. Maibé iha buat ida maka persiza hanoin hikas. Iha Indonezia ho nasaun sira iha Sudeste Asiatiku ne’ebe ho radikalmente haboot tan sira nia dezemvolvementu militar liu fali uluk. hanesan exemplu ida, Indonezia iha planu atu haboot sira nia militar komponente aero ho komponente naval nian iha tempu oin mai hodi ativu fila fali perioridade ba sira nia siguransa rai laran. Ezemplu seluk militar komponente Naval husi nasaun India nian haruka nia ro’o ahi funu nian iha tasi Cina parte Sul nian.Estadus Unidus Amerikanu mos monta baze Marina nian iha Darwin, Australia.Cina haboot tan nia militar hanesan ekpansiu ba ekonimia nian.

Se nune’e saida mak importante ba ita iha mundasa situasaun ne’e, núdar perioridade nasional ba Timor-Leste? La’os sai preokupasaun ida ho ONU ba dadaun ne’e, maibé tama ona iha lala’ok koperasaun bilateral. Indonezia ho Australia núdar rai ketan ho Fronteira Maritima ho Timor-Leste. Sira ita nia maluk no ita nia vizinus. Oinsa deit ita atu dehan konaba Indonezia , bele dehan katak, ida ne’ebé importante liu ba ita duke Australia. Indonezia iha pontensia boot ne’ebé bele hamosu problema boot, ne’ebé persiza haforsa relasaun diak. Viabilidade ita nia nasaun, ho estabilidade ida ne’ebé persiza liu kona-bá dezenvolvementu ne’ebé depende ba ita nia lokalizasaun no mentalidade ne’ebé iha relasaun ho nasaun sira ne’ebé uluk halo okupasaun politika ba ita. Ne’e maka fuan husi politika real nia adopta husi ita nia liders sira, ne’ebé mos belit ba ita nia politika diplomasia nian no importante liu ba bazeia ukun sira iha fator sira seluk ba pratikal ne’ebé la’o dadaun ne’e, laos emosaun idolojia ka fatin moralista nian, ka etniku nian. Kona-bá isu justisa naturalmente la’o dadaun maibé depois tinan 24 liu ita goza hamutuk relasaun intensivu ho ema Indonezia ne’ebé 250 millaun resin, ho relasaun emosinal ne’ebé boot no pratika liu, duke ba sira ne’ebé ita goza hamtuk ho 20 millaun Australianu sira. Ho tan tradisaun historiku no standar moris nian mos besik los ho Indonezia duke Australianu.

Maibé Australianu sira nafatin sai ita nia belun importante. Asesu ba ita nia reskursu naturais boot, ita tenki halo negosiasaun diak ho Australianu sira. Mina no gas iha Greater Sunrise dadaun ne’e sai debates namanas los hanesan evidensia ba ita nia relasaun ho sira, ita tenki hakiak relasaun pozitivu ne’e ho diak. Forsa Australianu sira mos halo papel diak iha dekade sira ikus ne’e nia laran, la’os deit satan netik nasaun, maibé mos kapasitasaun ba ita nia forsa militar no mos sai donor boot ba Timor-Leste ne’ebé kontinua iha komitmentu boot ba nasaun ne’e. Tanba ne’e mak Australia ho Indonezia, nasaun rua ne’e iha mos komunidade Timor oan ne’ebé boot, sai perioridade dahuluk nian ba ita nia politika rai liur nian.

Komunidade ASEAN sai preoridade daruak nian ba ita. Koperasaun rejional iha mundu ne’ebé global hetok persiza liu. Ita parte husi nasaun Sudestiku ASEAN, tan ne’e maka lojiku duni ita halo integrasaun an ne’ebé metin tebes ho ita nia vizinus sira. Ho hanoin ne’e, ami nia largura ki’ik los, tan ne’e ASEAN fo biban ba ami atu iha lian hodi fo hanoin ruma kona-bá mundu ne’ebé efetivu liu. Ida ne’e mos fo biban ita atu hare’e fali ita nia esperensias no peritu tekniku sira husi vizinus rejional nian iha areia siguransa ho defeza kuandu hasoru dezafu sira. Ikus liu, ASEAN ida ne’ebe efektivu no forte maka siguransa ne’e sai forte liu tan ba Timor-Leste.

Cina ho Estadus Unidus maka envolve, tempu ba rejiuan Pasifiku nia hanesan perioridades datoluk nian ba Timor-Leste. Nasaun rua ne’e mesak maka’as deit iha siklu 21 nia laran ne’ebé uza rejiaun Pasifiku sai sira nia destinasaun pontensial teb-tebes ba konflitus. Ida ne’e dala ruma sai razaun boot ida oinsa maka Timor-Leste tenki defini relasaun ho nasaun rua atu labele hakat liu fali sira idak ba seluk. Dala ida tan, largula ki’ik halo ita atu termina ita atu labele neitru ho Sino-Amerika ne’ebe boot los iha ita nia matan. Relasaun ita ho nasaun rua ne’e pozetivu hahu husi dahuluk no nasaun boot rua ne’e sai ita nia parseiru diak ba dezemvolvementu iha Timor-Leste, liu-liu iha serbisu hamutuk konaba seitor sira seluk liu hosi ajudus ne’ebe la hanesan maibé sira nain rua fo asistensia peritus tekniku nian ba seitor siguransa.

Ikus liu, perioridade nasional dahat nian ba Timor-Leste, tenki kontinua mantein relasaun diak ho Portugal ho nia CPLP sira. Portugal nia postura iha politika mundu nian agora reduz menus iha dekade hirak ne’e nia laran, maibé ita nia ligasaun historiku no limitasaun sira nia reskusu naturais ne’ebé limitadu, sira hatudu ona sira nia interese ho komitmentu Timor-Leste ba dalan dezemvolvementu nian. Tanba ne’e, dezenvolve relasaun diak ho Portugal sai hanesan perioridade politika estrajeiru Timor-Leste nian. Maibé, ida ne’e la’os iha limita deit ba relasaun ho Portugal ho komunidade CPLP. Komunidade CPLP sira goza no sente hamutuk historia ne’ebé hanesan ho Timor-Leste, nune’e mos dezemvolvementu ho obstaklu sira ne’ebe hanesan ho Timor-Leste ho sira nia esperensia. Nasaun CPLP barak iha nia ekonomia dinamiku no mos nasaun boot hanesan Brasil dezenvolve iha ekonomia mundial nian lalais los. Koperasaun konstrutivas ho Europa, Latina Amerika ho merkadu iha Afrika ne’ebé reprezenta oportunidade ba nasaun iha Azia ki’ik sira hanesan Timor-Leste ne’ebé la bele hapara.

Mundu sai mudansa radikal hahu kedas Timor-Leste deklara ukun an husi Portugal iha tinan 1975, no iha buat barak maka sei iha mudansa tan wainhira UNMIT hakat sai husi Timor-Leste iha fulan Dezembru, ne’e sinal lakon interese ba Timor-Leste hosi komunidade internasional sira ho aspetu luan liu.ida ne’e Naroman Foun ida ba Timor-Leste nia politika Estranjeriu iha biban ne’ebe relasaun bilateral signifikante boot tebes. Hasa’e forsa foun husi bloku rejional foun, Timor-Leste persiza halo adaptasaun ho lalais ba meus ida ne’ebé dinamiku ba rejional no mos ba mundu ho global. Ida ne’e sei involve lala’ok politika diplomatika ho avansadu no sofistikadu iha setor barak.

A New Dawn in Timorese Foreign Policy: From The Security Sector’s Perspective

50 years ago there were three countries that were important to Timor-Leste. They were Portugal, Indonesia and Australia.

During the conflict with Indonesia, Timor-Leste became an issue in the wider international community. We have since 1999 been the subject of a major international community state building experiment. This is about to come to and end and we must be aware of this and of its repercussions.

Timor-Leste is a tiny country and we are not as important as we think we are. Bill Clinton and the Pope have been to Dili, but they have never been to Kupang. Why is this? It is because we had a conflict with one of the world’s largest and most important countries – our neighbor Indonesia.

There is a strong likelihood that this week election (7 July 2012) elections will pass relatively peacefully, and that UNMIT will leave Timor by December. We need to remember that when this happens, we will no longer be that interesting or important to the wider international community. We will be returning to the past.

We will be returning to a time when Portugal, Indonesia and Australia were the lenses through which we see the world. However, things are different today. We are independent. We live in a region, which sees greater cooperation with each other via ASEAN. We are also living in a time when India, China and Indonesia are the world’s leading economies in terms of growth and potential. The United States has turned its eyes away from Europe and is now looking more and more to the Pacific and China.

Where do we fit into this? Unlike before we are now an independent country that is able to make sovereigns decisions. This is important but we need to remember that we are not considered as being important. This is because we are so small. Our human resources are still very limited and the same can also be said about our natural resources, when compared on a world scale. Our latest state budget of $1.7 billion may seem a lot to us, but pales into insignificance when compared to budgets of most major powers around the world.

However, it is not a cause for concern. We always knew we were small, and now we are going back a more normal status.

But there are things to think about. Indonesia’s and other Southeast Asian countries are dramatically expanding their military spending in a way that has never been seen before. For example, Indonesia plans to create a very large and powerful air force and navy in the future – as it replaces the priority of internal security with that of its sea and air spaces. Another example is that the Indian Navy now sends its ships into the South China Sea. The US is basing marines in Darwin. The Chinese military capability expansion is as impressive as its economic expansion.

So what is important to us in this changing environment, as national priorities? Instead of an ongoing fixation with the United Nations we are entering a period of important bi lateral relations development. Indonesia and Australia share borders (land and maritime) with us. They are our friends and neighbors.

Indonesia however, it can be argued, is growing more important to us than Australia. Indonesia has the potential to cause greater problems, which reinforces the need for good relations. The viability of our state, and the much-needed stability on which development is so dependent lies with the notion of warm relations with our former oppressor. This is the essence of Realpolitik adopted already by our leaders, which refers to politics or diplomacy based primarily on power and on practical and material factors and considerations, rather than ideological notions or moralistic or ethical premises. Issues of justice naturally persist but after 24 years of Indonesian occupation we have come to share more intensive relationships with 250 million Indonesians, with great emotional attachments and practicalities than those we share with 20 million Australians. Our traditions, history and living standards are closer to those in Indonesia than in Australia.

Australia however remains a key partner. Our access to our main source of income needs to be negotiated with Australia. The current Greater Sunrise oil and gas field debate is testament to this and it is therefore crucial we maintain positive relations with them. Their security forces have played a significant role in the past decade, not only in securing the country but also in training our own security forces and Australia is also Timor’s largest aid donor, which shows their commitment to this country. Therefore, Australia and Indonesia, both of whom have sizeable Timorese communities, have become our top foreign policy priorities.

ASEAN can be seen as our second priority. Regional cooperation in a more globalised and competitive world is ever more required. We are a Southeast Asian country, and therefore it makes sense we integrate more closely with our neighbours. Considering our very small size, ASEAN offers us the possibility to voice our views and concerns to the world more effectively. It also allows us to draw from the experiences and technical expertise of our regional neighbors in all areas including security and defense when facing challenges. Lastly, an effective and strong ASEAN ultimately means greater security for Timor-Leste.

Thirdly as the Pacific century evolves it is the USA and China who are now shaping to become our third priority. These are the two leading superpowers of the early 21st century and the pacific has become their courting ground and consequently a potential source of conflict. This is possibly the greatest reason why Timor-Leste must ensure good relations with both countries and not be seen favoring one over the other. Once again, our small size dictates we must be seen as being neutral in the Sino-American tussle that is growing before our eyes. There is no reason we cannot maintain good relationships with both countries.

Our relations with both states have been very positive from the very beginning and both have become major development partners in Timor-Leste, working primarily in different sectors and through different means but both offering their technical expertise in the security sector.

However, Timor-Leste must ensure to encompass a foreign policy strategy for the Pacific region that goes beyond just China and the USA. There exist other important players in the region with whom Timor-Leste can draw significant benefits from maintaining good relations. Timor-Leste has formed close partnerships in various fields with the likes of Japan, South Korea and New Zealand, which must be preserved. These have already proved to be very valuable, for example through the Korean employment program. The Asian-Pacific Forum provides a great opportunity for Timor-Leste to continue nurturing these relationships and possibly expand these to other regional powers.

Lastly, Timor-Leste’s fourth national priority should be maintaining good relations with Portugal and CPLP. Portugal’s stance in world politics has greatly reduced over the past decades, however our historical links are strong and despite their limited resources, they have shown enthusiasm and commitment to helping Timor-Leste pursue its development path. Therefore, nurturing good relations with Portugal should remain a foreign policy priority. However, this should not be limited to solely Portugal but the entire CPLP community, with whom we share a historical friendship. Most CPLP members share similar histories to that of Timor-Leste, as well as similar development conditions and challenges which Timor-Leste could draw upon from their experiences. Many CPLP states are dynamic economies and its largest member Brazil is rapidly evolving into a world heavyweight. Constructive cooperation with CPLP, will allow greater access to European (notably the United Kingdom & Ireland where sizeable Timorese communities live), Latin American and African markets, which represents opportunities for a small Southeast Asian country such as ourselves, that should not be dismissed.

The world has changed drastically since we first gained independence from Portugal in 1975 and things will change again with the imminent departure of UNMIT at the end of the year, signaling a loss of interest in Timor-Leste by the wider international community. This will mark a new dawn in foreign policy for Timor-Leste in which the development of bilateral relations will be of greater significance. With the rise of new powers and new regional blocs, Timor-Leste needs to adapt rapidly to a new set of regional and world dynamics. This will involve tactful and proficient diplomatic skills and efforts on various fronts. (nb).