(Foto: Google)
Timor-Leste esforsu an kleur ona hodi sai membru ASEAN, lideransa Timoroan sira sempre salienta konaba benefisu ekonomia no diplomasia iha organizasaun rejional, no governu foun sei kontinua servisu kona membru ne’e. Tuirfali mai maioria membru ASEAN sira hatete suporta Timor-Leste nia adeasaun tamba prense ona kriteria ne’ebe presija. Enkuantu, FM aseita katak sai membru ASEAN ne’e tenki akontese, FM mos salienta katak ASEAN nia eliminasaun konaba visa no dezafiu trabaladores bele kauza problema ba Timor-Leste. Governu Timor-Leste tenki prontu ba risku hirak ne’e sekarik sei tama ba organizasaun ne’e.
Tama ba ASEAN signifika katak sidadaun sira husi nasaun membru ASEAN sira bele halo viazan mai Timor-Leste laho visa ida. Kestaun ida ne’e posibilidade sei kauza ba ema estranjeru sira nia viazen no hela iha Timor-Leste ho dramatiku ne’ebe mos sei fo impaktu positivu no negativu. Iha parte seluk, sidadaun ASEAN sira bele lori sira badaen ne’ebe presiza tebtebes liu-liu iha konstrusaun industria. Parte seluk tan, grupu krimi organizadu ne’ebe organizadu ona iha nasaun barak ASEAN bele haree oportunidade hodi habelar sira nia atividade iha Timor-Leste.
Timor-Leste iha ona problema hodi asegura ninia lina fronteira ho kontrabandu ne’ebe habelar ona iha lina frontera no iha kapasidade oituan hodi kontrola ninia lina kosteria no teritoria tasi. Hakotu rekerementu visa bele haboot problema ne’ebe iha hanesan trafiku humanu no droga liuliu hanesan organizasaun ne’ebe mak involve iha atividade ida ne’eba forsa iha nasaun ASEAN barak. Kontrabandu kilat hanesan potensia ba problema.
Tuir fali mai, wainhira Timor-Leste durante ne’e ses an husi terorizmu internasional, fronteira ne’ebe fasil liu tama bele hasae ameasa ida ne’e. Alende ne’e bele fo potensia alvu ba Timor-Leste rasik, grupo terorista sira potensia bele uza nasaun ne’e hanesan baze ba organizasaun hodi ataka alvu liu husi rejiaun ASIA do sul. Terminasaun limitasaun ba visa tuir rekerementu husi ASEAN bele fasilita ba dezenvolvimentu ne’e rasik.
odi prevene problema ne’e, lideransa Timor Leste nian tenki planu ba ohin. Nasaun ne’e sei lao ho diak wainhira presiza maneira ida proativu, sei bele rezolve problema sira wainhira problema ne’e mosu. Tamba ne’e governu Timor-Leste tenki hadi’a kualidade seguransa iha fronteira, kontra terorizmu no kapasidade kontrola migrasaun, espesifikamente, parte kompetente tenki haforsa seguransa iha fronteira terestre ho Indonesia nomos iha iha airo porto no portu sira. Sira mos tenki hadia operasaun intelijenisa nian, parte ida koopera ho ajensia intelijensia husi nasaun vizinus sira. Ikus liu forsa seguransa sira tenki dezenvolve diak kapasidade seguransa maritima hodi nune’e kombate problema ne’ebe eziste ho kontrabandu no kaer peska illegal.
Alende risku ba seguransa, membru ASEAN bele hamosu problema ekonomia Timor-Leste ne’ebe dadauk ne’e falta kapasidade ekonomia ne’ebe presiza hodi compete ho nasaun membru sira ASEAN nian ho industria. Nasaun hirak ne’e bele lori diferensia vantazen hodi esplora Timor-Leste nia merkadu ne’ebe lalori prosperidade ba Timoroan rasik. Hodi evita ida ne’e, governu ne’ebe mai tenki konsidera oinsa halo emprezariu Timoroan sira halo kompetisaun no enkoraza investor estranjeru ne’ebe bele halo ekonomia domestika Timor-Leste nian ohin-oin.
Enkuantu elitu politiku Timor-Leste nian kleur ona hakarak sai membru ba ASEAN hanesan simbulu husi integrasaun ba komunidade internasional. Sira tenki konsidera didiak konsekuensia realidade mundu antes ne’e. Governu no forsa seguransa tenki hadia politika ne’ebe iha antes tama ba ASEAN. FM fiar ba membru nasaun ASEAN sira, maibe karik ida ne’e mos kuidadu duni no previzaun.
Timor-Leste must prepare for ASEAN-related security problems
Timor-Leste has long sought to join ASEAN. Timorese leaders regularly emphasize the economic and diplomatic benefits of participation in the regional organization, and the new government will almost certainly continue to pursue membership. Furthermore, most ASEAN member states support Timor-Leste’s accession because it has succeeded in fulfilling the necessary criteria. While FM agrees that ASEAN membership is desirable, FM also wants to emphasize that ASEAN’s elimination of visa and trade barriers could cause problems for Timor-Leste. The Timorese government must prepare for these risks in the event that they do enter the organization.
Joining ASEAN will mean that citizens from ASEAN member states can travel to Timor-Leste without a visa. This will likely cause a drastic increase in foreigners travelling to and residing in Timor-Leste, which can have positive and negative effects. On the one hand, ASEAN citizens can bring in much needed skills, particularly for the construction industry. On the other hand, organized crime groups already established in many ASEAN countries could see an opportunity to expand their activities into Timor-Leste.
Timor-Leste already has problems securing its borders, with widespread smuggling on the land border and little ability to patrol its coastline and territorial waters. The end of visa requirements could aggravate existing problems such as human trafficking and drug smuggling, particularly as organizations engaged in these activities already have a strong foothold in many ASEAN countries. Weapons smuggling is another potential problem.
Furthermore, while Timor-Leste has fortunately avoided international terrorism so far, more porous borders could increase this threat. In addition to potentially targeting Timor-Leste itself, terrorist groups could potentially use the country as an organizational base from which to attack targets throughout the Southeast Asia region. Ending visa restrictions as required by ASEAN could facilitate such developments.
To prevent these problems, Timor-Leste’s leaders must plan ahead. This country will fare much better if it takes a proactive approach, instead of merely addressing problems as they arise. Therefore, the Timorese government should improve the quality of its border security, counter terrorism, and migration control capacities. In particular, the authorities should strengthen security on the land border with Indonesia and at the Air Ports, and ports. They should also improve intelligence operations, partly through cooperation with the intelligence agencies of neighboring countries. Lastly, the security forces should develop better maritime security capabilities in order to combat existing problems with smuggling and illegal fishing.
In addition to security risks, ASEAN membership could cause economic problems. Timor-Leste currently lacks the economic capacity necessary to compete with ASEAN’s more industrialized member states. These countries could take advantage of this disparity to exploit Timor-Leste’s markets without bringing prosperity to the Timorese people themselves. To avoid this, the incoming government must consider how to make Timorese businesses more competitive and to encourage foreign investment that diversifies Timor-Leste’s domestic economy.
While Timor-Leste’s political elite has long desired ASEAN membership as a symbol of integration into the international community, they should thoroughly consider its real-world consequences beforehand. The government and security forces must improve the existing policies before entering ASEAN. FM believes in ASEAN membership, but only if it is pursued with caution and foresight.
